DIE SPRACHE DES FOSSILEN RAUSCHES - WAS VERBESSERTE VERHÖRTECHNIKEN, MASSENVERNICHTUNGSWAFFEN UND FRACKING GEMEINSAM HABEN

Fracking ist in den Medien derzeit ein Renner, viel ist von der neuen fossilen Energierevolution die Rede. In ihrem am 29. April 2013, Nr. 99, S. 18 in der Süddeutschen Zeitung erschienenen Forums-Beitrag gehen Martin Held und Jörg Schindler auf die Wurzeln des Hype um das Fracking näher ein unter der Überschrift: „Die Sprache des fossilen Rausches. Was Foltertechniken, konstruierte Kriegsbilder der Bush-Administration und Fracking gemeinsam haben.“ Entgegen der üblicherweise kolportierten Geschichte, dass es Innovationen neuer Fördertechniken ermöglicht haben, die Vorräte an unkonventionellem Erdöl und Gas zu fördern, sind es tatsächlich ganz andere Gründe. Der derzeitige, kurzlebige Hype um das Fracking ist eine Erbschaft der Bush-Ära, genauer formuliert ein Vermächtnis von Ex-Vizepräsident Dick Cheney und Halliburton. Die ungekürzte, längere Fassung des Beitrags finden Sie exklusiv hier auf ASPO Deutschland.

Zum Artikel von Dr. Martin Held und Jörg Schindler, erschienen in der Süddeutschen Zeitung (29. April 2013) »

THE ONLY TRUE METRIC OF ENERGY ABUNDANCE: THE RATE OF FLOW

"Energy abundance depends entirely on the RATE of energy flow ... Why is the rate of flow the key metric? Because in order to function the global economy depends entirely on continuous, high-quality energy inputs ... Modern global society has become like a shark. It either keeps barreling forward or it dies ... Shale natural gas and tight oil drillers face a task similar to climbing up a down escalator. Each must replace enormous fractions of their current production frequently just to keep production flat. A path to persistently rising global production of oil and gas far into the future cannot be built on production from such fields ... But, attempts to extract natural gas from methane hydrates should more properly be compared to the search for methods to extract oil profitably from the vast oil shale deposits in the western United States. After more than a century of trying, no one has been able to produce oil commercially from these deposits ... How high must prices go before extraction of either will be profitable? So far, the answer is higher than what people will pay and therefore what the economy can stand. And, at what rate will we be able to get these resources out? Rate is the crucial question."

Zum Artikel von Kurt Cobb, erschienen auf Resource Insights (28. April 2013) »

DEM RAUSCH FOLGT MANCHMAL EIN KATER

"Ich denke, die Industrie ist sehr gut beraten, die Kritik ernst zu nehmen, und auch die eigenen Hoffnungen zu hinterfragen: 'Wie realistisch sind die denn?'. Falls die Hoffnung dahinterstehen sollte, dass der Gaspreis damit [durch die Ausbeutung des Gases aus dichtem Gestein] billig wird, das ist auf sehr dünnem Eis denke ich ... Ich glaube, es kann sich niemand in Deutschland vorstellen, 15000 Bohrungen allein in Nordrhein-Westfalen wiederzubringen. Das sind aber die Dimensionen, die notwending wären, damit es einen relevanten Effekt hat ... Dem Rausch folgt manchmal ein Kater denke ich ... Wir können in Deutschland natürlich heute nicht sagen, welche Folgen es haben wird, dafür haben wir zu wenig Bohrungen - sprich gar keine Bohrungen im großen Stil. Dort wo wir im großen Stile die Förderung haben, und das sind die USA, da haben wir deutliche Auswirkungen ... Ich denke, man muß die Risiken mit den erhofften Erwartungen abwägen, und die Erwartungen sollte man genauso realistisch abschätzen ... Richtig ist, dass eine Nervosität herrscht. Was aber nicht richtig ist, ist dass sich der Boom in den USA übertragen läßt auf die Welt ... Dass man jetzt mit Fracking beginnt, das ist erst einmal ein Indiz, dass es keine leichter erschließbaren Gasvorkommen mehr gibt, denn sonst würden die Firmen selbstverständlich das tun ... Tatsächlich haben die Gas- und auch die Ölindustrie in ihrer 150-jährigen Geschichte zuerst die leicht erschließbaren Vorkommen erschlossen, als die zu Ende gingen, dann ging man aufs Meer hinaus, als das zu Ende ging, dann ging man in entfernte Gegenden weit weg, und jetzt haben wir mehr oder weniger das letzte Refugium, und das ist eben das Ausquetschen der letzten Tropfen aus dem dichten Gestein."

Zum Interview mit Dr. Werner Zittel, ausgestrahlt auf 3sat (26. April 2013) »

WHEN WILL PEOPLE START TO UNDERSTAND PEAK OIL?

"Peak Oil will always be a controversial theory… always. But it’s a reality. What’s maddening is explaining it over and over again to people that don’t get it ... As I’ve said, peak oil does not refer to the amount of oil we have left. Peak oil refers to the flow rates. It refers to the fact that the “easy to get to” oil is gone. It’s the “hard to reach” expensive oil that we now have to go after ... That’s why we’re now going after the expensive “hard to reach” oil in places, such as Alaska’s North Slope, which is turning out to be pretty exciting stuff ... Ignore those that have no idea what peak oil theory really is. For a Saudi to get the theory wrong is just laughable."

Zum Artikel von Ian Cooper, erschienen auf Market Intelligence Center (24. April 2013) »

EVERYTHING IS RIGGED: THE BIGGEST PRICE-FIXING SCANDAL EVER

"The world is a rigged game ... From gold to gas to swaps to interest rates, prices all over the world are dependent upon little private cabals of cigar-chomping insiders we're forced to trust ... That includes the markets for gold (where prices are set by five banks in a Libor-ish teleconferencing process that, ironically, was created in part by N M Rothschild & Sons) and silver (whose price is set by just three banks), as well as benchmark rates in numerous other commodities – jet fuel, diesel, electric power, coal, you name it ...  It's not just stealing by reaching a hand into your pocket and taking out money, but stealing in which banks can hit a few keystrokes and magically make whatever's in your pocket worth less. This is corruption at the molecular level of the economy, Space Age stealing – and it's only just coming into view."

Zum Artikel von von Matt Taibbi, erschienen im Rolling Stone Magazine (25. April 2013) »

SURVIVAL TIPS FROM THE GYPSIES

"1. In battle, the best strategy is flight ... 2. Don't carry and don't use weapons ... 3. Cherish your mobility ... 4. Travel light in life ... 5. Cultivate creative obfuscation ... 6. A man's family is his refuge ... 7. What you learned to do yourself, can never be stolen ... 8. Catch the occasion when you see it ... 9. Be jealous of your identity ... 10. Be a free spirit."

Zum Artikel von Prof. Ugo Bardi, erschienen auf Cassandra's Legacy (25. April 2013) »

Anmerkung: Um jegliche Missverständnisse zu vermeiden, sollte an dieser Stelle ausdrücklich betont werden, dass dieser Beitrag auf gar keinen Fall abwertend gegenüber den Roma zu verstehen ist. Ganz im Gegenteil stellen sie mit ihrer Ablehnung von Krieg, ihrem Minimalismus und einhergehendem Konsumverzicht, ihrer Resilienz und ihrem starken, familiären Netzwerk ein Beispiel für eine postfossile Lebensweise dar.

Mit freundlicher Genehmigung von Jason Borbay zur Nutzung von "Mickey O Pitt" auf ASPO Deutschland // Copyright Jason Borbay (2011)

SCHIEFERGAS IM REALITÄTSTEST

"Die Produktionskosten in vielen Schiefergaslagerstätten übersteigen die momentanen Gaspreise, und die Produktion aufrechtzuerhalten, erfordert stetig mehr Bohrungen und zunehmend mehr Kapital, um dies zu gewährleisten ... Meiner Meinung nach gehen die förderfähigen Vorräte im nächsten Jahrzehnt beträchtlich zurück, sofern die Preise nicht stark ansteigen ... Dabei hat sich ein typisches Muster entwickelt: Sobald ein Feld entdeckt wird, entfesselt sich ein Pachtrausch. Danach folgt ein Bohrwettlauf gegen die Zeit, denn die über drei bis fünf Jahre laufenden Pachtverträge können vorzeitig gekündigt werden, wenn kein Gas gefördert wird. Zuerst suchen die Prospektoren lukrative "Blasen" – so genannte "sweet spots" –, die prioritär angezapft werden; erst dann widmen sie sich marginalen Randbereichen ... Die reale Produktion fällt meist steiler ab, als die Modellrechnungen der Industrie normalerweise voraussagen, weshalb diese Methode die gesamte erreichbare Fördermenge und ihre Wirtschaftlichkeit überschätzt ... Beständig müssen neue Bohrungen angesetzt werden, um die Produktion konstant zu halten ... Im Lauf der Zeit werden die besten Felder mit ihren "sweet spots" ohnehin ausgebeutet sein, weshalb die Kosten weiter steigen. Der größte Teil der Schiefergasförderung ist momentan also unwirtschaftlich und benötigt höhere Gaspreise, um allein die Fördermengen stabil zu halten, geschweige denn sie zu steigern ... Das gleiche Problem trifft auch für Schieferöl zu ... Regierungen und Industrie müssen zur Kenntnis nehmen, dass Schiefergas und -öl weder billig noch unerschöpflich sind."

Zum Artikel von J. David Hughes, erschienen auf Spekturm (3. März 2013) »

ERDÖL- UND ERDGASRESERVEN IN DER BUNDESREPUBLIK DEUTSCHLAND

"Die an das LBEG berichteten geschätzten sicheren und wahrscheinlichen Erdölreserven in Deutschland beliefen sich am 1. Januar 2013 auf 32,5  Mio. t Erdöl und liegen damit um 2,8 Mio. t oder 8 % unter denen des Vorjahres ... Im Vergleich der aktuellen Reserven mit den produktionsbereinigten Reserven des Vorjahres ergibt sich, dass in der Erdölbilanz Deutschlands 0,2 Mio. t des in 2012 geförderten Erdöls nicht durch neue Reserven ersetzt werden konnten ... Die diesjährigen Veränderungen werden mit der fortschreitenden Ausförderung der Felder sowie Neubewertungen der Reserven bei den jährlichen Reservenberechnungen der Unternehmen erklärt ... Die Erdölproduktion fiel damit um ca. 56.000 t (2,1 %) unter den Wert des Vorjahres (2,68 Mio. t) ... Bezogen auf den natürlichen Brennwert von Erdgas (Rohgas) betrug die Summe der geschätzten sicheren und wahrscheinlichen Erdgasreserven am Stichtag 1. Januar 2013 123,3 Mrd. m3(Vn). Damit wurden 9,3 Mrd. m3(Vn) oder 7 % weniger Reserven gemeldet als im Vorjahr ... Im Berichtsjahr 2012 ging die Erdgasproduktion in Deutschland um 1,2 Mrd. m³(Vn) auf nunmehr 11,7 Mrd. m³(Vn) Rohgas bzw. 10,7 Mrd. m³(Vn) Reingas zurück. Das entspricht einer Verringerung um 9,1 % (9,7% Reingas) gegenüber dem Vorjahr. Diese stetige Abnahme der Erdgasreserven sowie der Produktion ist im Wesentlichen auf die zunehmende Erschöpfung und Verwässerung der vorhandenen Lagerstätten zurückzuführen. Nennenswerte Neufunde sind in den letzten Jahren ausgeblieben."

Zum Kurzbericht des Landesamts für Bergbau, Energie und Geologie, Hannover (März 2013) »

IF CLIMATE CHANGE AND POPULATION GROWTH ARE GOING TO PUSH FOOD PRICES UP BY 50%, WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU ADD IN PEAK OIL?

"The UN has been a consistent leader in recognizing the ways that biofuels drive up the price of food for the world’s hungry poor, but has failed to grasp the ways that without a conscious untangling, food and energy prices will become even more tightly bound together - potentially leaving billions hungry ... We must prepare for a less-globalized, not more globalized, society and one struggling with new poverty in new places as climate change and Peak Oil come together. Human rights of all sorts will be affected by the changes that are coming. If we do not wish to lose gains because we are surprised by depletion, we must prepare to hang on to them in a lower energy society ... There is, at this moment, as far as I know, no comprehensive UN study on energy resources and their future. This is both a shame and a scandal – we are preparing for the coming century without a clear picture of the real problems that beset us. Every nation on earth relies on UN research and material to make decisions – and that material is becoming increasingly irrelevant. It is time for the UN to come into the 21st century and recognize that finite resources are truly finite – and that a clear picture of our limits is essential to our human future. Nearly everyone is failing to take into account the role of geology, oil and energy limits in their predictions – and we’re racing towards disaster."

Zum Artikel von Sharon Astyk, erschienen auf Casaubon's Book (22. April 2013) »

ÖKONOMISCHER UNSINN

"Nun hofft man auch hierzulande auf den Fund neuer fossiler Energiequellen, die ergiebig und billig sind. Das ist ein gefährlicher Trugschluss. 1,3 Billionen Kubikmeter Schiefergas vermuten die BGR-Wissenschaftler im deutschen Untergrund. Eine Menge, die gerade einmal ausreichen würde, um den inländischen Verbrauch elf Jahre lang zu decken - und nur dann, wenn alle Möglichkeiten ausgeschöpft werden. Was völlig utopisch ist, weil ein Teil der Vorkommen in dicht besiedelten Gebieten liegt. Wenn überhaupt, kann nur ein Bruchteil ausgebeutet werden. Auseinandersetzungen mit der Bevölkerung sind unausweichlich. Bürgerproteste, teure und langwierige Prozesse werden folgen ... Fest steht also, deutsches Schiefergas wird mit Sicherheit nicht billig werden - und seine Reichweite ist nicht so groß wie angenommen ... Eine Schiefergasförderung in Deutschland hat weder aus ökonomischer noch aus ökologischer Sicht Sinn."

Zum Artikel von Silvia Liebrich, erschienen in der Süddeutschen Zeitung (23. April 2013) »

THE LANDSCAPE OF ENERGY

"A single liter of oil has an amount of energy equivalent to a human performing hard labor for hundreds of hours ... We even “eat” oil: The energy inputs that undergird industrial agriculture, including synthetic pesticides, largely come from oil. By some estimates, our food system uses more than seven calories of energy for every calorie of food consumed ... The first oil to be found and produced was, naturally, the easiest to extract and therefore the cheapest; it also happened to be of superior quality, generally offering a net energy ratio of well over 25:1. Worldwide discoveries of this “conventional” oil peaked in the 1960s, however, and worldwide production has flattened over the last decade, despite record-high prices. It is widely accepted that the age of “easy” oil is coming to a close. Society is turning toward deepwater offshore oil, tar sands, oil shales, and other more challenging resources to meet ever-growing global demand for oil ... As terrestrial reserves are depleted and drilling technology improves, offshore production is expected to increase ... [D]eepwater drilling inherently has a lower net energy ratio than conventional oil production on land ... The enormous technical complications of unconventional oil suggest that it will be extremely challenging to ramp up their production to fully replace declining conventional oil resources at the scale and rate needed ... Whether the current boom in hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) for shale gas is a short-lived bubble or a natural gas revolution, it threatens to increase pollution, destroy habitat, and keep [the world] hooked on a “bridge fuel” to nowhere ... Moreover, our massive globalized economy perches atop a century’s worth of physical infrastructure that was built to run on fossil fuels ... Perhaps the most worrisome aspect of emerging technologies is the hope they instill in us that technology can ultimately defeat all environmental limits, allowing economic and population growth to continue exponentially, indefinitely. In a finite world, that is a false hope."

Zum Auszug aus dem Buch "The Energy Reader: Overdevelopment and the Delusion of Endless Growth" von Tom Butler, Daniel Lerch und George Wuerthner, erschienen beim Post Carbon Institute (23. April 2013) »

UNCONVENTIONAL OIL AND GAS – GLOBAL CONSEQUENCES

"Unconventional fuels are no solution for global energy problems. At best they offer a viable bridge for conversion of the energy system, at worst they perpetuate existing use paths ... The transition to a sustainable energy system remains a must from the perspective of climate protection and of security of supply ... With respect to unconventional energy sources, knowledge about ecological footprints, greenhouse emissions and technological risks is urgently needed."

Zum Artikel von Kirsten Westphal, erschienen bei der Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (März 2013) »

ENTERING A RESOURCE-SHOCK WORLD

"Whether you know it or not, you’re on a new planet, a resource-shock world of a sort humanity has never before experienced. Two nightmare scenarios -- a global scarcity of vital resources and the onset of extreme climate change -- are already beginning to converge and in the coming decades are likely to produce a tidal wave of unrest, rebellion, competition, and conflict. Just what this tsunami of disaster will look like may, as yet, be hard to discern, but experts warn of “water wars” over contested river systems, global food riots sparked by soaring prices for life’s basics, mass migrations of climate refugees (with resulting anti-migrant violence), and the breakdown of social order or the collapse of states ... Wherever you look, the picture is roughly the same: supplies of critical resources may be rising or falling, but rarely do they appear to be outpacing demand, producing a sense of widespread and systemic scarcity. However generated, a perception of scarcity -- or imminent scarcity -- regularly leads to anxiety, resentment, hostility, and contentiousness ... Anxiety over future supplies is often also a factor in conflicts that break out over access to oil or control of contested undersea reserves of oil and natural gas ... [T]he unbridled consumption of the world’s natural resources, combined with the advent of extreme climate change, could produce a global explosion of human chaos and conflict. We are now heading directly into a resource-shock world."

Zum Artikel von Prof. Michael T. Klare, erschienen auf TomDispatch (21. April 2013) »

ENERGY: MORE BUCK, LESS BANG

"Oil extraction used to be as easy as sticking a straw into the sand: in countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq, it has largely stayed that way. But resource nationalism means the Middle East is now largely off-limits to western groups. Shut out of the “easy oil”, they have gone to the ends of the earth in search of the world’s remaining reserves. Companies such as BP, Royal Dutch Shell and ExxonMobil have invested billions to turn Canada’s bitumen into synthetic oil, and freeze natural gas into an exportable liquid. They have ventured out into the remote, iceberg-strewn waters of the Arctic, discovered huge new oil reserves under a 2km-thick layer of salt off the coast of Brazil and “fracked” their way through vast shale and “tight” oil formations from Texas to North Dakota ... Yet one of the most alarming elements of the increase in cost and complexity is that the majors have been getting much less of a bang for their buck ... European majors failed to find enough new oil and gas to replace what they had produced, chalking up a reserve replacement ratio of only 92 per cent ... In the past decade, the compound average growth rate has been “practically zero”, as much of the new production has been used to make up for the natural depletion of mature oilfields ... We have to realise as an industry that the easy oil and easy gas is over. We are moving into areas that are more challenging and that tends to mean the costs per barrel are higher than 10 years ago."

Zum Artikel von Sylvia Pfeifer und Guy Chazan, erschienen in der Financial Times (11. April 2013)

'WE HAVE SET AN EXPIRATION DATE FOR EXTREME POVERTY'

"2030. This is it. This is the global target to end poverty ... [F]or the first time in history, we have committed to setting a target to end poverty. We are no longer dreaming of a world free of poverty. We have set an expiration date for extreme poverty. With commitment, cooperation, and the vision of leaders from around the world, we have great faith that we can make it happen."

Zum Statement von World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim auf der Spring Meetings 2013 Closing Press Conference (20. April 2013) »

Anmerkung: An dieser Stelle sollten jene "frohe Botschaften" im Kontext des Peak Oils und dessen aktueller und künftiger Manifestation in permanenter Rezession, steigenden Transport- und Nahrungsmittelkosten, Sparmaßnahmen im Sozialsystem, inflationärer Fiatgeldinjektionen in das deflationäre Wirtschaftssystem, dem Zusammenbruch von Wertschöpfungsketten und kritischer Infrastruktur, Massenarbeitslosigkeit, Staatsbankrotten, Hungersnöten und zunehmenden Ressourcenkriegen betrachtet werden. So fällt es etwas schwer zu "glauben", dass die Vision der Weltbank einer Beendigung der weltweiten Armut durch Top-Down-Aktionen zusammen mit Schwesterorganisationen wie den Vereinten Nationen und dem Internationalen Währungsfonds erreicht werden können. Der kritische Beobachter könnte gar dazu verleitet sein, sich die Frage zu stellen, ob dies auch jemals die Absicht solcher Institutionen war, und ob es ihnen letztlich nicht nur um ideale Handelsbedingungen und maximale Kapital-Extraktion und -Konzentration geht. Mit dem Phasenübergang ins postfossile Zeitalter ändert sich daher womöglich zwar die Taktik jener transnationalen Organisationen, aber nicht ihre langfristige Strategie. So äußerte sich Davison L. Budhoo, ehemaliger Ökonom beim Internationalen Währungsfonds in einem Interview mit Anthony Swift im Jahr 1988 im New Internationalist Magazine mit den Worten: "I dare anyone in the Fund to point to a country and say it is much better off economically today because of a Fund program". In seinem 1990 publizierten Kündigungsschreiben Enough is Enough an Michel Camdessus, dem damaligen Managing Director des IWF ist zu lesen:

"We go through motions, Sir; we  have our annual charade that we call the  Fund/World Bank Board of Governors Meetings; we hand out the same "reform package" to the Ministers of Finance of the Third World, and they go home satisfied, having connived in all our trickery and participated in our game. Yes, yes, we move them around the chessboard like robots. We tell them 'come back for the next bodacious meeting of the Development and Interim Committees in Sin City in the Spring; Fun and Games will start anew again'." (Budhoo, 1990, p. 10)

John Perkins schrieb in seinem im Jahr 2008 veröffentlichten Buch The Secret History of the American Empire das Folgende:

"We channeled funds from the [World] Bank and its sister organizations into schemes that appeared to serve the poor while primarily benefiting a few wealthy people. Under the most common of these, we would identify a developing country that possessed resources our corporations coveted (such as oil), arrange a huge loan for that country, and then direct most of the money to our own engineering and construction companies—and a few collaborators in the developing country. Infrastructure projects, such as power plants, airports, and industrial parks, sprang up; however, they seldom helped the poor, who were not connected to electrical grids, never used airports, and lacked the skills required for employment in industrial parks. At some point we EHMs [Economic Hit Men] returned to the indebted country and demanded our pound of  flesh: cheap oil, votes on critical United Nations issues, or troops to support ours someplace in the world, like Iraq. In my talks, I often find it necessary to remind audiences of a point that seems obvious to me but is misunderstood by so many: that the World Bank is not really a world bank at all; it is, rather, a U.S. bank. Ditto its closest sibling, the IMF." (Perkins, 2008, pp. 2-3).

So bleibt es dem Leser selbst überlassen, jene neuesten Weltbank-Visionen über die "Beendigung der Armut" bis in das Jahr 2030 angesichts des Peak Oils und seiner systemischen Konsequenzen mit der bitteren Realität abzugleichen.

Weiterführende Links:

Davison L. Budhoo: Enough Is Enough - Open Letter of Resignation to the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund »

Anthony Swift: IMF Whistleblower - 'We make or break human life every day of every year' »

John Perkins: Confessions of an Economic Hit Man »

John Perkins: The Secret History of the American Empire - The Truth About Economic Hit Men, Jackals, and How to Change the World »

John Perkins: Extended Interview from the Film "Zeitgeist: Addendum" »

Don Quijones: Lies, Damned Lies & Sadistics: The IMF’s Role as Bankster Enforcer »

SCIENTIFIC VIEWPOINT OR 'RELIGIOUS' BELIEF: MY CAT EXPLAINS ENERGY OPTIMISM

"The fossil fuel optimists in the world tend to be economists, not geologists (who generally take an empirical rather than religious approach to matters). Those economists simply know that they know that the marketplace is a superior force—even a god-like one—to which we should exclusively entrust our energy future. Yet, that same marketplace has failed to yield enough crude oil in the last decade to provide the cheap energy that keeps the global system stable ... Failed peak oil predictions of the past don't mean that peak oil is wrong, only that peak oil draws ever closer. The bumpy plateau in oil production proper (crude oil plus lease condensate) since 2005 ought to be cause for alarm ... [M]ost of the world's governments have no plausible plan for addressing the consequences of a persistent decline in world oil production. So, given that, it hardly seems advisable to them to inform the public about a danger for which there is no response ... Keep in mind that the work that the optimists do on Wall Street and in the oil industry is focused specifically on making rich people richer ... It matters little whether my cat ever comes to the realization that he's getting the same water upstairs as he is in the basement. His 'religious' belief in upstairs water does no harm to him and inconveniences me only on rare occasions. But the religious devotion of the energy optimists to the oil abundance story and their campaign to prevent a reasoned discussion based on the facts and logic has the potential to harm us all very badly and soon."

Zum Artikel von Kurt Cobb, erschienen auf Resource Insights (21. April 2013) »

MORPHOLOGICAL THINKING

"Our national mythology makes it impossible for most Americans to conceive of a future of accelerating contraction and impoverishment, and so any excuse to believe that happy days are here again will attract an instant and uncritical audience. Consider the extraordinary fog of misinformation surrounding the current fracking bubble—the increasingly loud and frantic claims that the modest temporary gains in oil production driven by the fracking phenomenon guarantee a future of abundant energy and prosperity for all. It’s the same twaddle about a new era with limitless upside potential, but it’s even more popular than usual, because the alternative is facing the future that’s taking shape around us ... If you’ve learned to recognize the shape of a common sequence of events, and you see the first stages of that sequence get under way, you can predict the outcome of the sequence, and be right far more often than not."

Zum Artikel von John Michael Greer, erschienen im Archdruid Report (17. April 2013) »

STRAUSSENPOLITIK: THE FALSEHOOD OF 'PEAK OIL THEORY'

In der Serie "Straußenpolitik" möchten wir unseren Lesern eine Auswahl an Artikeln vorstellen, in denen versucht wird, Peak Oil zu leugnen, ins Lächerliche zu ziehen oder Technologien als Lösung des Grundproblems finiter Ressourcen darzustellen.

"This theory was introduced in the US after the oil embargo in early 70s by some bankers stating that when 1/2 of the oil reserves in any field is produced, the production will follow steep decline. This concept is based on a probability theory that is not linked to any scientific facts or physical laws that govern oil production in oil reservoirs ... As we all know, the Saudi oil reserves are maintained for long time at a figure close to 260 billion barrels which makes the current age of the Saudi oil to more than 70 years at a production rate of 10 million barrel per day ... The advocators of this false theory said that the world will reach the Peak Oil in the 80s, then this was changed to the 90s, 2000, 2010, and now in 2025!!!! Although scientifically and historically the basic of this theory was proved to be wrong, its estimate of the time at which the world will reach the Peak has been a moving target."

Zum Artikel von Dr. Sami Al-Nuaim, erschienen in der Saudi Gazette (20. April 2013) »

AFTERMATH OF A BUBBLE AND WHAT RISES FROM THE ASHES

"Thanks to the Fed’s zero-interest-rate policy and the trillions it has handed to its cronies since late 2008, boundless sums of money went searching for a place to go, and they were chasing yield where there was none, and so they took risks, any kind of risks, in their vain battle to come out ahead, and some of this money found its way to natural gas drilling. It coincided with innovation – the combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing that unlocked vast reserves of natural gas in shale formations across much of the US. Result: a debt-fueled drilling bubble. It ended in a glut that knocked the price of gas from its peak of $13 per million Btu to a 10-year low of $1.92 last April ... In other parts of the world, natural gas was six, seven, and in Japan over eight times more expensive than in the US ... US gas production is essentially landlocked. It was the darkest hour for natural gas. The industry was ravaged by a price that was far below production costs ... [Producers] shifted from drilling for “dry” gas to wells whose mix contained larger portions of oil and natural-gas liquids, which sold for higher prices and made wells profitable. Production leveled off ... The big question: what is the cost of production of dry natural gas over the life of the well? ... Christophe de Margerie, CEO of French mega-oil company Total, which is involved in shale gas projects in Texas and Ohio, let it slip that his company would not restart production of dry gas until the price reached the breakeven point [of $6/mmBtu]."

Zum Artikel von Wolf Richter, erschienen auf Testosterone Pit (18. April 2013) »

TOTAL PRODUCTION BY THE TOP FIVE OIL MAJORS HAS FALLEN BY A QUARTER SINCE 2004

"The combined crude oil production of the five main international oil companies (Exxon, BP, Shell, Chevron and Total) hit an historic high in 2004. Since then, it has fallen by 25.8%, despite large increases in investments. Total crude oil produced by the majors was 10.760 million barrels per day (MB/D) in 2004. In 2012, it reached only 7.981 MB/D. It has decreased by 2.779 MB/D in 8 years (-1/4) ... Worldwide crude oil production rose by 4% between 2004 and 2011. It has hardly increased at all since 2006, however: since then it has been on an undulating plateau, within a small margin of less than 1.25% ... OPEC is now content with a little over 40% of worldwide production. But it controls more than 70% of the planet's proven reserves. Consequently, as the known oil fields are getting depleted, production should become more and more concentrated in the major OPEC countries, starting (or finishing) with Saudi Arabia, as well as, to a lesser extent, in the former Soviet Union. It seems unlikely for the moment that the development of non-conventional and extreme sources of oil, in particular shale hydrocarbons, will be able to change that fact."

Zum übersetzten Artikel von Matthieu Auzanneau, erschienen auf The Oil Drum (19. April 2013) »

Anmerkung: An dieser Stelle sei auf die Abbildungen von Dr. Werner Zittel "Big Oil Production Figures" vom 22. November 2012 hingewiesen. Diese stellen eine Analyse der großen westlichen Ölfirmen ExxonMobil, Shell, BP, Texaco, ENI, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Repsol/YFP dar, und zeigen, dass deren Förderung in Summe seit 2004 um 20% zurückgegangen ist. Ausgaben für Exploration und Förderung haben sich dabei seit 2000 um mehr als den Faktor fünf erhöht. 

DIE NÄCHSTE BLASE

"Aber was, wenn die vermeintliche Schiefergasrevolution, nicht die Weltwirtschaft stärkt, sondern bloß eine Spekulationsblase nährt? ... Mit den überhöhten Angaben zu den Vorkommen wollen die Ölfirmen von den Risiken ablenken, die mit der Ausbeutung verbunden sind. Die Fracking-Methode wirft dabei nicht nur Fragen des Umweltschutzes auf, sondern ist auch wirtschaftlich zweifelhaft, denn diese Fördermethode ist alles andere als nachhaltig ... Mit sinkenden Fördermengen müssen die Betreiber, um die Produktion insgesamt zu halten, immer neue Bohrungen niederbringen ... Und anstatt die Leute aus der Schiefergasbranche auf den Boden der Tatsachen zurückzuholen, stellte ihnen die Wall Street immer neue 'Schecks mit vielen Nullen' aus ... Der Schiefergasboom bewahrt also weder die USA noch den Rest der Welt vor dem Eintritt des 'Peak Oil' ... Trotz der zusätzlichen Erschließung unkonventioneller Öl- und Gasvorkommen durch Fracking schrumpfen die weltweit bekannten Reserven kontinuierlich um 4,5 bis 6,7 Prozent jährlich ... Dabei ist die Botschaft nicht schwer zu verstehen: Der neue Gasüberfluss kündigt keineswegs die nächste Phase dauerhaften Wohlstands an. Es handelt sich um eine künstliche Blase, die die grundlegenden strukturellen Instabilitäten nur kurzzeitig verdecken kann. Wenn diese Blase platzt, wird sie eine Versorgungskrise und eine Preisexplosion auslösen, die für die Weltwirtschaft schwere Folgen haben könnte."

Zum Artikel von Dr. Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed, erschienen im Monde Diplomatique (12. April 2013) »

THERE IS NOTHING WE CAN DO

"[Sustainable green technology] is a fantasy. Even if we manage to increase the efficiency of energy use dramatically, use of renewable energies much more, and painful sacrifices to limit our consumption, we have virtually no chance to prolong the life of the current system. Oil production will be reduced approximately by half in the next 20 years, even with the exploitation of oil sands or shale oil. It just happens too fast ... The World Bank director has explained to me, the problem of peak oil is not discussed in his institution, it is simply taboo. Whoever will try to anyway, is fired or transferred. After all, Peak Oil destroys the belief in growth. You would have to change everything ... We are basically now just as programmed as 10,000 years ago. If one of our ancestors could be attacked by a tiger, he also was not worried about the future, but his present survival. My concern is that for genetic reasons we are just not able to deal with such things ... There’s nothing we could do. People always say again: We need to save our planet. No, we do not. The planet is going to save itself already. It always has done. Sometimes it took millions of years, but it happened. We should not be worried about the planet, but about the human species."

Zum Interview mit Prof. Dennis Meadows, erschienen auf System Failure (31. März 2013) »

Anmerkung: An dieser Stelle sei auf "Saving the Planet" des sozialkritischen Künstlers George Carlin hingewiesen.

5 REASONS WHY OIL COMPANIES GET AWAY WITH OVERBLOWN FIELD ESIMATES

"1. Hype ... 2. Most people don’t understand basic mathematics ... 3. The bystander effect ... 4. Keeping business as usual ... There is a concerted effort to downplay the occurrence of peak oil and to reinforce that there is plenty of affordable oil left in the world. Because if people really start getting spooked en mass then governments could be forced into seriously looking into alternative energy, the last thing any oil company really wants. By reporting overblown field estimates oil companies keep people passive and unconcerned about their future. This means oil companies can get on with making as much money as they possibly can while cheap oil is still relatively accessible ... 5. Warding off effective action on climate change ... So next time you see an article proclaiming a huge amount of oil or gas in an area, stop for a second and think about how those companies might be benefitting from such positive press. Because more than likely the truth might be buried a little more deeply than the provocative headline." 

Zum Artikel von Andrew McKay, erschienen auf Southern Limits (4. April 2013) »

PEAK OIL DEMAND IS ALREADY A HUGE PROBLEM

"Oil consumption for the PIIGS in total hit its highest level in 2004, before the decline began. Peak oil consumption by country varied a bit: Portugal, 2002; Italy, declining since 1995; Ireland, peak in 2007; Spain, peak in 2007; Greece, peak in 2006. Peak demand is very much related to jobs. Peak oil demand occurs when a country is not competitive in the world market-place, and because of this, loses industry and jobs. One reason this happens is because the country’s energy cost structure is not competitive in the world market-place. With the run-up in oil prices starting about 2003, oil is by far the most expensive of the traditional energy sources we have available today. Countries that use a large percentage of oil in their energy mix can be expected to have a hard time competing, because of oil’s higher cost ... The countries that are most affected by rising oil prices are the countries that use oil to the greatest extent in their mix of energy products ... [T]hat would be the PIIGS. The rest of the US, EU-27, and Japan would be next in line."

Zum Artikel von Gail Tverberg, erschienen auf Our Finite World (11. April 2013) »

DER KAMPF UM DIE ROHSTOFFE HAT BEGONNEN

"Der Peak Oil beim konventionellen Öl hat eine Lehrbuchfunktion. Er zeigt, dass die Ölförderung Grenzen hat. Das gleiche werden wir auch beim unkonventionellen Öl erleben ... Interessant wird aber sein, in der Zukunft die Stufen der Verknappung zu beobachten, diese werden wir erleben, obschon es dann noch Erdöl hat. Die erste Stufe, das Überschreiten des Peak Oil beim konventionellen Öl in einzelnen Ländern, haben wir in Grossbritannien und Norwegen 2000 erlebt. Auch Mexiko und Indonesien und andere Länder haben ihr nationales Fördermaximum überschritten. Die nächste Stufe war das Erreichen des Fördermaximums weltweit beim konventionellen Erdöl, das war 2006 bei 70 Millionen Fass pro Tag. Die Stufe, in der wir jetzt drin sind, ist, dass der hohe Ölpreis auf der Wirtschaft lastet. In älteren ökonomischen Lehrbüchern wurde gesagt, ein Ölpreis von 100 $ führe zu Rezession, Arbeitslosigkeit und Finanzkrisen. Jetzt haben wird das alles, aber man bringt es nicht mit dem Ölpreis in Verbindung – jedenfalls nicht in erster Linie. Sicher ist auf jeden Fall: Ein hoher Ölpreis bringt die Bruchstellen, die im wirtschaftlichen System drin sind, schneller nach vorn. Eine nächste Stufe sind Ressourcenkriege – militärische Macht wird eingesetzt, um sich den Zugang zum knapper werdenden Öl zu sichern ... Der Kampf um die Rohstoffe hat begonnen ... Den Anteil der Erneuerbaren am Energiemix heraufzuschrauben, ist eine Generationenaufgabe ... Wir und die nächste Generation müssen die Vision einer langfristig tragfähigen Energiewirtschaft verwirklichen. Sonst wird die andere Vision Realität: Ressourcenkriege, abschmelzende Gletscher, verseuchtes Wasser. Dieses Zerstörungsmodell kennen wir. Ich aber setze mich für ein anderes Modell ein, eines das auf Frieden und Nachhaltigkeit beruht und die Energieproduktion wieder näher an Europa und die Schweiz heranholt."

Zum Interview mit Dr. Daniele Ganser, erschienen in Finanz und Wirtschaft (6. April 2013) »

THE OIL WAR

"The Iraq war was about oil. Recently declassified US government documents confirm this, however much US president George W Bush, vice-president Dick Cheney, defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld and their ally, the British prime minister Tony Blair, denied it at the time ... The neocon ideologues, still on the scene, had bizarre ideas: they wanted to build a pipeline to transport Iraq’s crude oil to Israel, dismantle OPEC and even use “liberated” Iraq as a guinea pig for a new oil business model to be applied to all of the Middle East ... The occupiers regarded the oil under the ground as Iraq’s one real asset ... The usual practice is for foreign companies that provide financial backing to get a share of the oil produced, which can be very significant in the first few years. This was the formula US politicians and oil companies wanted to impose. They were unable to do so. Iraq’s parliament, so often criticised in other matters, opposed this system ... Iraq’s oil deposits were known and mapped out. There was therefore little risk to foreign companies: there would be no prospecting costs and exploitation costs would be among the lowest in the world. From 2008 onwards, Baghdad started offering major oil companies far less attractive contracts — $2/barrel for the bigger oilfields, and no rights to the deposits. ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, Total, and Russian, Chinese, Angolan, Pakistani and Turkish oil companies nevertheless rushed to accept, hoping that things would turn to their advantage ... ExxonMobil and Total disregarded the federal government edict that threatened to strip rights from oil companies that signed production-sharing agreements relating to oilfields in Kurdistan ... Meanwhile, Turkey has done nothing to improve its relations with Iraq by offering to build a direct pipeline from Kurdistan to the Mediterranean. Without the war, would the oil companies have been able to make the Iraqis and Kurds compete?"

Zum Artikel von Jean-Pierre Séréni, erschienen im Monde Diplomatique (6. März 2013) »

Anmerkung: Es sei an dieser Stelle im Rahmen der aktuellen, terroristischen und vom sogenannten "Westen" unterstützten Destabilisierungsversuche Syriens auf die geplante Pipelinetrasse vom Irak und insbesondere der Autonomen Region Kurdistan zum Mittelmeer bzw. Israel hingewiesen.

MORE FINANCIAL WORRIES COMING TO LIGHT IN DOMESTIC SHALE DRILLING INDUSTRY

"For several years now, a brave few financial analysts and reporters have questioned whether there may be something rotten in how many drilling companies report their earnings, how their executives compensate themselves, how they calculate the amount of gas or other fossil fuels they can pull from the ground. At root, these skeptics have said that there seemed to be a deliberate attempt by some of these companies to mislead investors, lawmakers and the public about the economics of drilling and the financial prospects of their companies ... Hess Corporation, which is looking to transform itself from a company known for its roadside gas stations into an oil and gas exploration and production company, stunned some investors when it announced the selling price for some of its acreage in one of the hottest shale plays currently, the Eagle Ford. The price was less than a third of what investors expected, sending a signal that the shale may not be as productive as it was hyped up to be ... Look, for example, at how much shale companies have had to lower the estimates they previously offered for the amount of available gas they can economically pull from the ground. In 2012, company after company was forced to lower these estimates as the price of natural gas plummeted, acknowledging that the gas could not be profitably drilled in current market conditions."

Zum Artikel von Sharon Kelly, erschienen auf DeSmogBlog (28. März 2013) »