Engpässe in der Verfügbarkeit von Schweröl (Marines Rückstandsöl bzw. englisch: Bunker Fuel) in der Schifffahrt sind eine Entwicklung, die schon länger vorauszusehen war, und auf die wir auch im Buch "Postfossile Mobilität" kurz eingegangen sind. Mittel- und längerfristig heißt das, dass die
Schiffe statt mit Schweröl mit Diesel fahren müssen (gut
für die Umwelt!). Problem für die Schifffahrt: (1) die
heutigen Motoren können nicht mit Diesel fahren und (2) die
Energiekosten für die Schifffahrt erhöhen sich dramatisch. Es
knirscht aber jetzt schon und das Geräusch wird lauter
werden. Und es trifft die Stromerzeugung mit Schweröl.
Ein Kommentar von Jörg Schindler zum Beitrag von Tom Whipple über Bunker Fuel, erschienen in der "Peak Oil Review - March 19, 2012" auf ASPO-USA (19. März 2012). Auf ASPO Deutschland mit freundlicher Genehmigung von Tom Whipple veröffentlicht.
As the world’s oil situation changes, a new problem seems to be
arising — shortages of fuel for ships. Just before you get to the bottom
of a barrel of crude you find the residual fuels made up of very long
molecules that are used in boilers and furnaces. It usually sells for
50-60 cents a gallon less than gasoline and diesel and therefore is not
particularly popular with refiners. Now modern refineries have
incorporated processes to upgrade the lower quality residuals into more
valuable products — and therein lies the problem. China’s output of
residual fuels fell by 2.7 percent in February to the lowest level in
five years. Russian shipments are expected to fall by 7 percent this
year due to higher taxes.
As the older refineries are replaced by new ones, there is less fuel
for ships and thermal power plants coming on the market. In locations as
diverse as Norfolk, Virginia and Japan these shortages are approaching
crisis proportions. The new large refineries just opening in India do
not expect to export any residual fuels. Korea used to be the largest
supplier in Asia; now it produces next to nothing.
The problem seems most acute in Japan where the demand for residual
fuel to make electricity skyrocketed as Japanese nuclear reactors were
shut down. Japan increased imports by 19 percent in January and it is
expected that demand from power plants will grow by 7 percent this year.
With demand for the fuel growing in Asia and “everyone destroying the
capability to make it,” prices have risen 25 percent so far this year
in Singapore — more than the 17 percent increase in crude. Container
ships, which usually sail on fixed schedules, are hurting the worst
because with so much over capacity, they cannot pass the costs on to
customers. Bunker fuel prices are expected to average 11 percent higher
this year and possibly be in short supply.
The cost of bunker fuel at Norfolk, VA hit an all-time high of $775
/mtw due to tight supply of low sulfur fuel which is now required to
lower emissions in ports. Part of the problem stems from the recent
closing of the refinery in the Virgin Islands that was supplying much of
the bunker fuel coming to the East Coast.
With no solution to this problem in sight, it seems inevitable that
shipping delays and higher transportation costs are in the wind. The
problem of higher costs for residual fuel oil will also impact many
places in the underdeveloped world that are dependent on the fuel to
generate their electric power.
